Projektion des Klimawandels in Sachsen für die Dekade 2041 – 2050
Mit einer neuen Modellvariante zur Klimasimulation werden in Sachsen extreme Wetterereignisse der nächsten 50 Jahren abgeschätzt. Danach ist generell mit einer deutlichen Zunahme der Häufigkeit warmer Wetterlagen zu rechnen. Die projizierte Erwärmung wird mit einer markanten Abnahme der Frosttage und einer Zunahme heißer Tage einhergehen. Im Winter werden die monatlichen Niederschlagssummen zunehmen. Deutlich trockenere Witterung ist im Sommer vor allem in den nördlichen und östlichen Landesteilen mit häufigen örtlich begrenzten Extremniederschlägen zu erwarten.
Nach heutigen wissenschaftlichen Untersuchungen ist der Mensch ein dominanter „Klimafaktor“. Die anthropogene Klimabeeinflussung ist Folge der Veränderungen der Erdoberfläche, der Eingriffe in den Wärme-, Energie- und Wasserhaushalt und insbesondere der nachhaltigen Veränderungen der chemischen Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre. Letztere verändert den Strahlungs- und Wärmehaushalt der Atmosphäre und damit auch die atmosphärische Zirkulation im Klimasystem. Fraglich bleiben allein das quantitative Ausmaß sowie die regionale Ausprägung der unter diesen Voraussetzungen unvermeidlichen globalen Klimaänderungen. Klimaänderungen durch die anthropogene Emission klimawirksamer Spurengase (anthropogener Treibhauseffekt) und deren Risiken zeichnen sich bereits ab und werden nach Klimamodellrechnungen in ihrer Bedeutung deutlich zunehmen, wenn nicht weltweit und tief greifend Klimaschutz- Maßnahmen umgesetzt werden.
| Copyright: | © Springer Vieweg | Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH | |
| Quelle: | Wasser und Abfall 11/2004 (November 2005) | |
| Seiten: | 5 | |
| Preis inkl. MwSt.: | € 10,90 | |
| Autor: | Dipl.-Meteorologe Wilfried Küchler  | |
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