Sensitivity analysis of a dynamic soil-plant model for simulations of fate of pollutants after repeated applications of amendment on agricultural soils

In 2009, Veolia Environnement Research and Innovation, the Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique and the Technical University of Denmark have started a large research cooperation to develop a mathematical model dedicated to the assessment of the fate of organic substances and metals in agricultural soils, after repeated applications of Residual Organic Products (ROP, e.g : sludge, composts). This dynamic model predicts the concentrations of substances in different compartments of the agricultural ecosystem and fluxes in groundwater over time, as a function of approximately a hundred input (physicochemical properties and concentration of substances, environmental conditions, crop characteristics).

A validation by comparison with experimental data was performed and was mostly satisfying. Then a sensitivity analysis was achieved in 2013, with the implication of Ecomatters, scientific consultant from Netherlands, in order to identify the key parameters and their influence on the results. The model was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations, and 10 000 iterations were tested. Rank correlation coefficients were calculated from the results to assess the influence of each input. Some inputs are systematically influent while some other inputs are only influent for some substances. For instance, concentrations of pollutants in plants are systematically sensitive to the water content of plants. In some cases ouputs are sensitive to the choice of the variables associated to the scenario (e.g : concentrations in ROP). Overall, this analysis confirms the good functioning of the model. Further research is recommended to refine the variation ranges, and to realise an uncertainty analysis.

Copyright: © European Compost Network ECN e.V.
Quelle: Orbit 2014 (Juni 2014)
Seiten: 0
Preis inkl. MwSt.: € 0,00
Autor: Agathe Revallier
Jeanne Serre
Philippe Cambier
Stefan Trapp

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