Beginning in the early 1970s, the application of scenario analysis to environmental issues has been a well-established field. Since then, environmental scenario analysis has been used to examine many different scales and types of environmental problems, ranging from global sustainability to specific issues such as changes in emissions, air quality, or land cover in a specific region. Environmental scenarios provide an interdisciplinary framework for analyzing complex environmental problems and envisioning solutions for these problems by, for example, establishing a link between environmental science and policy.
We performed a study to define the key elements of feasible global climate policy scenarios for the post-2012 UNFCCC regime by contacting – through a series of questionnaires – 149 stakeholders involved in climate-change discussions. We applied a Multiple Correspondence Analysis to the results. We then classified the stakeholders' views into three main groups which we associate with scenarios for post-2012 climate policy. Further, we identified three points with wide consensus among the stakeholders: (i) 2013 is the most likely starting point for the next climate agreement, (ii) flexibility mechanisms will most probably be pursued, and (iii) technology and financial transfers to developing countries are likely to be used as incentives for these countries to undertake a more meaningful climate policy. We found that the type of target for the United States largely determined the type of scenario the stakeholders' envisaged for the post-2012 climate regime. Finally, we can associate stakeholders with a certain scenario taking into consideration their experience in climate change negotiations
|Copyright:||© Lexxion Verlagsgesellschaft mbH|
|Quelle:||Issue 3/2009 (Oktober 2009)|
|Preis inkl. MwSt.:||€ 41,65|
|Autor:||Ronal Gainza-Carmenates |
J. Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera
J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros
|Artikel weiterleiten||In den Warenkorb legen||Artikel kommentieren|
bifa-Text Nr. 45: Anpassung an den Klimawandel: eine Befragung oberbayerischer Unternehmen
© bifa Umweltinstitut GmbH (3/2010)
Das bifa Umweltinstitut untersuchte, in welchem Umfang sich oberbayerische Unternehmen vom Klimawandel betroffen fühlen, welche Aspekte dabei eine Rolle spielen und ob die Anpassung an die unvermeidbaren Folgen ein Thema ist.
One, Two or One and a Half Protocols? An Assessment of Suggested Options for the Legal Form of the Post-2012 Climate Regime
© Lexxion Verlagsgesellschaft mbH (10/2009)
The current international climate regime basically consists of two treaties: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992, which has nearly universal membership, and the Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997. The latter treaty obliges developed states listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by the amount inscribed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol. However, it only provides for a first commitment period lasting from 2008 to 2012. Thus, there is an urgent need to establish new rules ensuring further emission reductions after 2012.
Transitioning from the CDM to a Clean Development Fund
© Lexxion Verlagsgesellschaft mbH (4/2009)
Parties to the UNFCCC must work at Copenhagen toward establishing sound institutions and instruments that will serve as the foundation of international climate cooperation over the coming decades. One of the major tasks will be to assess the performance to date of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is an emissions trading offset system that allows developed countries to meet their Kyoto targets by investing in emissions reduction projects in developing countries, where greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement is expected to be cheaper than it is in developed countries.
bifa-Text Nr. 42: CDM - Clean Development Mechanism in the waste management sector
© bifa Umweltinstitut GmbH (10/2009)
An analysis of potentials and barriers within the present methodological framework
Suspension of Eligibility to Use of the Kyoto Flexible Mechanisms: A Review of Substantive Issues (Part 1)
© Lexxion Verlagsgesellschaft mbH (7/2009)
Climate change has attracted attention at the level of academia, the media, science and policy making, assuming renewed urgency with the release of the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Despite the 5% emission reduction commitment (relative to 1990 levels) entered by Annex 1 country Parties, the report indicated the need for further drastic reductions amounting to a cut of 25–40% in the near term by Annex 1 country Parties to ensure a meaningful reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.